The Unprepared Revolution

On July 4, 2013, in Uncategorized, by natalt

A statement of the Nationalist Alternative Committee

Egypt’s Mohamed Morsi had been toppled about one year after he won presidential elections which followed a previous revolution to oust Mubarak. Some are calling this Egypt’s “second revolution” and for some people, it seemed inevitable outcome once the realization was made that one despotic President (Mubarak) was replaced by Islamists. How did the revolution go wrong? How can people win demands to remove one unwanted leader, Mubarak, have an election, only one year later to end up in the same position?

The Egyptians are dissatisfied with Morsi’s performance. A failing economy, failed policies and a government they claim is out of touch with the people has led to dissatisfaction which has then led to action on the streets. There are other theories, that Morsi was a Zionist puppet, that the Muslim Brotherhood was created by British Intelligence to keep the Middle East backwards or that the CIA helped put him in charge. There are also difficulties the Muslim brotherhood faced, a resistant bureaucracy which opposed them due to fears about Morsi putting supporters at all levels of power and a police force which was used to jailing Islamists finding that it was not taking orders from them.i It is little surprise that it was the army which fought for the people in Egypt. The army is trained to serve the people, the police are trained to serve the state. These may well be contributing factors, but there is also one simple explanation, which is coming from the streets of Cairo. The Muslim Brotherhood were not prepared for office. Having spent decades trying to obtain power, for seemingly singular purposes, they were unprepared once in a position of power. Running a country, having to tend to its economy, having to compromise and govern for those who didn’t support you is a vastly different endeavour than political activism and winning support. When that country is one like Egypt, the task is made all the more difficult. While the means by which an organization runs itself can give people an indicator of how it will run a country, they are nevertheless two different beasts. Egypt’s top military office, General Abdel-Fatah El-Sisi said in a televised interview,

 “This is a united people of Egypt,” anti-Morsy organizer Ahmed el Hawary said. “Mohamed Morsy has actually succeeded in uniting the people, after two years that we were totally against each other … Mohamed Morsy, with his bad management, with his risking all the lives of Egypt, brought all Egyptians back together to be facing again their future, hand in hand.” ii

The Muslim Brotherhoods goal is to instill the Koran and Sunnah as the “”sole reference point for…ordering the life of the Muslim family, individual, community… and state.”. Looking at their website, http://www.ikhwanweb.com/, it is hard to find any position on economics, the environment, law, industrial relations or many other aspects of running a country. Are they capable of dealing with Egypt’s high unemployment, crime and food prices? Can instilling the Koran solve such problems?

The Egyptians wanted Mubarak out, and revolutionaries won. That is perhaps their problem, that in a moment of hope they didn’t stop to pause whether people who bring about revolutions, are the best people to be in charge post revolution. It is one thing to draw on the issues of the government of the day, it is another to take their place and do better. People may lament the seemingly tyrannical buffoon in power, but the one who comes promising hope and change, may, once in power, bring more of the same and potentially be even worse. There may be many Americans who in some ways can sympathize with Egyptians, who after getting rid of Bush, who was seen as an anti-libertarian, debt-racking warmongering simpleton, was replaced by a figure in whom people saw hope and promise of a new age, only to have even more debt, even greater invasions of privacy and curtailment of freedoms and continuation of war. When people are desperate, anyone will do.

 

There is a lesson here for any political revolutionary, particularly for the European “far-right”, who are fast approaching potentially holding real power. Positions of power, or as they should more appropriately be called, positions of responsibility, are not for those unprepared to take on the burden. We can see Golden Dawn making rapid progress in the polls, but once in power, will they keep it? Will the BNP, if it is somehow able to turn the tide and install Nick Griffin as Prime Minister, be accepted by the White British, even by those who voted for them, one or two years after this Nationalist revolution? Or will they be wanting New Labour and the Tories back?

What about White Nationalists? What if we are to imagine, for a moment, that somehow a party consisting of members of the World Church of the Creator, Skins and confused individuals who like to play dress up with SS uniforms were to take power in a white country. How long would it be before people, even whites who decided to take action against the anti-white program threatening the existence of our race, decide they’ve made an awful mistake? How long before the household breadwinner realizes that their ability to feed and house their family is now under threat upon seeing a swastika tattooed cabinet member responsible for industrial relations?

We can look at the Golden Dawn as being a real potential for Greece to secure a future for its people, and they may appear enticing to many. But when they have the potential to hold power over the country, how then will people react to some of their outlandish foreign policies, such as taking back Constantinople and the Black Sea? How long will they last, if people one or two years after election, are still facing the same economic problems that Greece is facing now, and perhaps worse? Mr Michaloliakos may have much worthwhile rhetoric against the mis-management of the government of the day, but the question that Greeks should be asking him, is “What are YOU going to do differently? How will you solve our economic woes?”.

Taking the other side of politics, this can apply just as equally to the Greens. Environment is their platform, supposedly, and they are a party of Social Justice Warriors, but if Australia was to ever give them parliamentary majority, will these Social Justice Warriors be able to do much more than conserve the wilderness and allow gay marriage? It is difficult to imagine Socialist Alliance or Socialist Alternative, or any of the far left being credible politicians. It is difficult to imagine Australians maintaining their standard of living with the Greens economic principles.

The events in Egypt aren’t a failure of democracy, but perhaps the inevitable outcome of a democratic process occurring with a despised leadership. The vote becomes one of protest against the incumbent than one of well measured and reasoned support. It is for this reason, and perhaps this reason alone that Tony Abbott and the Liberals were able to appear to be favourites, only because people voted against Gillard in opinion polls, where ones vote has no ramifications. Answering against the incumbent in an opinion poll is very different to actually casting a vote. As the election nears and Australians realize that support for Abbott means he may win, rather than being a safe way to send a message to Labor without actually having Abbott in power, support for the Liberals will drop. We’ve seen it drop dramatically now since Rudd became PM and Labor has good odds of winning.

Likewise, “protest votes” against mainstream parties may quickly disappear soon before people realize that the parties they voted for might actually wield some power, or if not then, soon after they have. It’s a lot easier to cast support for the crazies and send a message to the other, when deep down you know you won’t actually have the crazy in power. Children threaten to leave home all the time when unhappy with their parents, but those threats quickly disappear when parents call the children on their bluff.

The mainstream media has not yet caught on to this new reality, which is why they consider opinion polls as accurate measures of support. They no longer are, they are instruments of protest, and we can expect in the future, for wildly swinging opinion polls to occur prior to elections involving an unpopular incumbent. That is, the we’ll see a phenomenon where protest votes for minor parties quickly disappear prior to the election, when it all becomes real and final. The challenge for these minor parties is to build support based on their own credentials, ability and vision, to be seen as potential leadership material. Nationalist parties must ask themselves, would the average person really want us in power? They must first seek support from people who truly see them as a viable alternative, than as a protest, which means, the party must first and foremost work on becoming a viable political alternative, than offering protest.

With Egypt’s recent political volatility, it could simply have been a case of there being not time nor process for people to ponder their future. The urgency of the first Egyptian revolution led to a decision made with haste. Their analysis had to be made after the revolution, there was little choice. Now with events repeating themselves, there is a likelihood the outcome will repeat. Will the next in power be any better?

For us, the lesson is that a party cannot be a one issue, one trick pony. Any party or organization which seeks responsibility, can have a focal issue, but it must still be prepared in advance for the demands and requirements of governing a nation. It must be a party that sees and prepares itself for the entire spectrum of demands and responsibility that the job entails. It must be able to not just deal with its primary issues, but ensure that people have economic stability and prosperity, that the nation retains favourable relations with other nations, that it has solid plans for providing for future energy and resource requirements and that it is able to govern for a nation of people, rather than just for its own supporters.

 

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